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文章正文
PVC market outlook or stabilized rebound
        According to business community monitoring data, as of November 5th, the domestic PVC producer price at 5005 yuan / ton, the price from the beginning of 2015 fell by 8.09%, down 16.19%. 2011 so far, PVC domestic producer price curve showed a unilateral downward trend, the overall decline of 37.61%. A number of production enterprises is recently repeatedly lowered the ex factory price, according to survey data show that some enterprises factory price direct approximation for 20 years the domestic PVC prices low, below 5000 yuan / ton, dealers and more bearish outlook, to a wait and see attitude. PVC recent contract shows that as of November 5, 2015, the big commercial PVC contract (1605) close to 4560 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell 4615; recent contract (1601) close 0.22% yuan / ton, compared with the previous day fell by 0.86%, PVC futures daily average of two consecutive days. Thus, the industry's attitude towards the investment in the industry has changed, the majority of the bullish attitude.
        Supply and demand contradiction is expected to ease supply is expected to break through
        Although in recent years, PVC capacity growth slowed down, backward production capacity to further eliminate the 2015 PVC capacity has exceeded 23000000 tons. The first half of 2015, due to various reasons, PVC devices have delayed plans to put into operation, no new capacity put into operation. And second half of 2015, affected by the market and the traditional maintenance season, in Inner Mongolia and Shandong to device PVC enterprises were longer-term device maintenance, short time appear some grades of supply to the situation. As of September 2015, according to data released by the National Bureau of statistics, 2015 1~9 month PVC cumulative production of 12121000 tons, down 0.5% year on year. 2015 1~7 months of imports of polyvinyl chloride resin is only 15800 tons, 14600 tons of exports, is expected in 2015 PVC annual output of about 18000000 tons, the supply and demand gap is gradually narrowing.
        PVC products can be divided into two kinds of hard and soft quality, PVC in the sheet, profiles, tubes, films and other applications are a certain market share. According to the business community rubber branch of monitoring data, the 2014 PVC table view of demand for 1631.42_wan million tons, predict according to this, the 2015 PVC excess rate of 10.42%. Recently promulgated by the state RRR cuts, the full liberalization of the two child policy, making the real estate industry once again rejuvenation, just need to purchase, improve housing will be a substantial rise, China's PVC consumption space is huge, the PVC industry is still in the rise. Is expected in 2021, the global demand for PVC will be 3.2% of the annual growth rate rose. Which is the Asia Pacific region is still the largest PVC sales market, accounting for nearly 56% of the world's total consumption, the future is still the fastest growing demand for PVC. The market in North America and Western Europe has been back to growth after a major loss in the previous years. And most of these areas for our country's export trade country. On the other hand, according to long-term data observation, PVC prices follow a cycle of four years, a high price in 2011, the 2015 economic situation is relatively sluggish, near the end of the policy to encourage, or to promote PVC in 2016 ushered in a new season of high prices. Anti dumping policy implementation of import and export status change
        2014 is the bottleneck of the export of PVC industry. Brazil, Argentina and other countries have announced on 2014 to import from China's PVC resin anti-dumping duties, which makes the original supply and demand contradiction, excess capacity PVC industry. According to statistics from the rubber branch of the business community, the year 2014, China's exports of PVC resin is 1.94 million tons, total imports to 3.75 million tons. And in 2015, PVC exports Jedi counterattack, September 28, Ministry of Commerce issued "on the originating in the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China's Taiwan region import PVC applicable anti-dumping measures for a final review of the investigation notice". In the final review of anti-dumping measures during the period of investigation, to the countries and regions imported polyvinyl chloride (PVC) continue in accordance with the original tax scope and tax levy anti-dumping duties, this is undoubtedly a light of the PVC industry. According to agency business rubber branch monitoring data, from January to July 2015, China's exports of PVC resin to 1.46 million tons, total imports to 1.58 million tons, with exports over the same period last year rose 34% and imports fell 39%. With the import volume gradually reduced, the rest of the country on the implementation of the PVC anti-dumping policy is approaching maturity, the number of exports is increasing, the next period of time, PVC industry may be able to pick up the return of spring
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